Cell Phones and the 2008 Vote: An Update
Posted by Jay Donovan on 09/25/08 in General
A very interesting article over at PewResearch.org that I found by way of some commentary at Communities Dominate Brands.
Current polling in the 2008 presidential election shows a very tight race between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain. In part because of the strong support Obama is attracting among younger voters, and as the number of Americans who are reachable only by cell phones rises, interest continues to grow in the question of whether public opinion polls that do not include cell phones are accurately measuring the relative levels of support for the two candidates.
The Pew Research Center for the People & the Press has conducted three major election surveys with both cell phone and landline samples since the conclusion of the primaries. In each of the surveys, there were only small, and not statistically significant, differences between presidential horserace estimates based on the combined interviews and estimates based on the landline surveys only. Yet a virtually identical pattern is seen across all three surveys: In each case, including cell phone interviews resulted in slightly more support for Obama and slightly less for McCain, a consistent difference of two-to-three points in the margin.
It is important to note that these are just polling numbers in a very select sample. As a trend however, it is interesting to see how mass mobile phone adoption is changing the landscape of how this polling is conducted. While the directly proportional relationship between “Cell only use” and Democratic leaning suggests youth and the migratory/portable culture it accompanies, it is fascinating to contemplate laying this study and concept over other segments and situations like charitable giving campaigns etc.
Interesting.
Written by Jay Donovan · Filed Under General
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There is a hint in the chart in the discussion of weighted and unweighted data. Polls done right will take into effect any demographic data skewing. It looks like the data may be skewed at most 2 to 3 points, within the polls’ margins of error.
It’s certainly an interesting data point, but, as the switch from landlines to mobiles becomes more widespread demographically, I think that the differences will start to flatten and disappear.